COVID19 Conspiracy Theories: The good, the bad, the ugly, and mine

I’ve decided to collect some of the best COVID19 conspiracy theories I can find and share them here. (Here is a Rolling Stone piece that includes many important health-related ones I haven’t listed.) There have been some good ones (where good = particularly outrageous). They’ve come from the left, they’ve come from the right, and they’ve come from the righteous. They’ve come from people who apparent live in the Upside Down, or maybe the Inside Out.

I will include links to sources and debunking information. And then I will make up a few of my own for your entertainment. Just please remember that none of these is true… at least, not necessarily so! Now for the fun… and you can use the Table of Contents to go straight to the theories (or to some ideas on why people do buy into conspiracy theories) if you want!

Table of Contents, with theories presented in no particular order.

Warning: Why you shouldn’t believe conspiracy theories
The Dr. Charles Lieber Theory
The Bill Gates Wants to Rule the World Theories
The (closely related) 5G Causes COVID Theory
The Deep State Plot to Damage Trump Theory
The Russian Plot to Secure Trump’s Re-election Theory
The Man-made Coronavirus Theories
The Liberal Media Hoax Theory
The Trump is Pushing Hydroxychloroquine Because he Owns the Company Theory
The Tiger King Theory
The Gavin Newsom Wants California to Rule the World Theory
Additional Conspiracy Theories as They Come Up
Why People Believe Conspiracy Theories

Warning: Why You Shouldn’t Believe these (& other) Conspiracy Theories

The other day, a friend defended a conspiracy theory with the argument that there was no evidence it wasn’t so. Of course, there was no evidence it was either, and no logical reason why it could be. And I must acknowledge that, as a statistician, I will be the first to say that failing to reject the null hypothesis (that there is not an association between two variables) is NOT the same as accepting the null. In fact, it’s problematic to state “There is no association” when all you have is lack of evidence of an effect. This is one of the major problems with Null Hypothesis Significance Testing.

However, just because you don’t have proof that something is not true doesn’t mean you ought to believe it! Why not?

First, if there is no causal relationship then it’s probably not true…

even if no one can prove it’s false. One of the hallmarks of a bad theory is that it’s not falsifiable.

Second, Occam’s Razor

Dating back to a 14th century monk, Occam’s Razor is just a fancy way to remind people to abide by rules of parsimony.
(1) Always choose the theory that provides the simplest explanation for a phenomenon. This is similar to what a neurologist told me once: When you hear hoof beats, assume horses, not zebras (ie: opt for the most likely explanation). Explanations requiring fewer assumptions are more likely to be correct.
(2) When choosing between two equally simple (parsimonious) theories, choose the one with more explanatory power. In other words, a theory that can explain 70% of human behavior (for example) is much better than one that can only explain 20% of it. So if Conspiracy Theory X is a really good explanation for 1-2 actions of the federal government but completely fails to apply to anything else they’ve done, then it’s a bad theory and most likely false.

But I LOVE conspiracy theories!!!

That’s all right, so do I! I’ve always loved them, since a childhood full of science fiction and Stephen King (even though I blame King for encouraging paranoia). (You need to read The Stand if you haven’t already!) But even though I enjoy a good conspiracy theory, and believe we should all think twice about all the information we obtain (read both sides of every debate and apply critical thinking), it’s simply immoral to spread lies and profit from people’s ignorance. When you find yourself drinking up alternative theories (especially if they feed into your personal political biases), ask yourself what the promulgator has to gain. Usually, it’s money. Think Alex Jones. He has built a fortune by spoon-feeding venom dressed in faux “information.”

Bad theories that don’t hurt anyone are just bad theories, but unfortunately, too many conspiracy theories lead to potential harm (those that incite violence or racism or disregard for best practices in science and/or medicine). Before you advocate for anything that could potentially cause harm, do your homework. If there is no causal relationship, forget it.

Remember, it is perfectly fine to be interested in conspiracy theories. Read up on them. Consider the source. Look for the money. Look for the science (or lack thereof). That said, remember that scientists are not invulnerable to corruption. Most scientists will never be wealthy and they get paid nothing to publish and have everything to lose if they lie or falsify data. But the power of preeminence (fame!) is alluring, and if a PhD is making a fortune peddling ideas, books, or products, be suspicious. If 95% of the scientific community believes one thing, the 5% loudly proclaiming the opposite are wrong.

The Dr. Charles Lieber Theory

This one appeared on a Nextdoor thread entitled “What is your best guess as to what the coronavirus will do?” It’s been a slightly political (for Nextdoor), long-lived comment thread that highlights how much people are turning to alternative communication in Our Day of Social Distancing.

Shared on Nextdoor:

The evil people who released this man made virus will be arrested. Zaosong Zheng intended to release it but he was stopped at the Boston International airport with 21 vials and was headed to Wuhan China, where in fact, the first case happened. Charles Lieber was also arrested. The two worked together at Lieber Research Group at Harvard. No telling how many curriers there were that got through customs though. Anyway, in glad that 3 people have been arrested so far. And I’m even more thankful that they only got the contagious part right… they failed on the death toll part. The 2013 Noble Prize winners predicted the infection toll to be 80,000… it’s 80,289. They predicted the death toll to be 3,250… its 3,245. Only off by 289 and 5. Crazy. The “bell curve” is over and as the tempers rise for spring, Covid 19 cannot survive. It thrives at under 46 degrees. So I wish people would stop letting the media feed you the fear porn they’ve done thus far. We will be okay 😊. Everyone just remain calm and don’t hoard food or toiletries as others need it too. ✌🏽

(WP instructs me to “write citation” here, hahaha.)

So what’s it about, in legible English?

The idea is that Dr. Lieber, of Harvard University, created the novel coronavirus that causes COVID. Real life fed this theory, because Lieber was arrested on January 28th for lying about the nature of his collaboration with Chinese researchers at the Wuhan University of Technology (Science article).

The whole thing reminds me of The Cobweb, a novel by Neal Stephenson & J. Frederick George. But, just like the novel, this conspiracy theory is fiction. (Factchecker; Snopes)

The Bill Gates Wants to Rule the World Theories

I love these ones… One idea is that Gates helped make the coronavirus (see below for more man-made theories and why they are false). Of course, Gates was also held responsible for Zika, which also spawned numerous conspiracy theories.

Another theory is that Gates has funded the creation of a tracking device that will be implanted in everyone so foolish as to get a vaccine to protect them from COVID19. Then he would use that device (some say it’s a microchip) to depopulate the world, say. Or maybe to track our every move. Sadly even Fox host Laura Ingraham shared an anti-vaxxer tweet about it.

This is one of the many theories that Alex Jones has irresponsibly released upon the ignorant.

Note. I cannot decide if Alex Jones is an evil sack of sh*t, period, or an evil sack of sh*t and a tool. I am certain he is an evil sack of sh*t, though: he unethically takes advantage of people’s gullibility and lack of education. He has almost–but not quite–made me dislike conspiracy theories.

Why are the Bill Gates theories wrong?

What I want to know is why? Why would Gates bother? Why is he (like George Soros) so frequently the evil villain of conspiracy theories? Because he has a lot of money? (And the people spreading the theories don’t have as much?) Because he is very visible (and in fact working to combat the virus)? Gods know.

But let’s suppose Gates is some sort of modern Dr. No. It’s just impossible. And no, Gates did not say vaccines are made so governments can depopulate the world. And some more fact-checking by USA Today.

The 5G Causes COVID Theory

Piggy-backing on pre-COVID mistrust of 5G, this theory holds that 5G networks somehow cause the novel coronavirus. As GQ states, this theory is bonkers. Sadly, it has led to cell towers being vandalized in the UK… and it has been promulgated by celebs such as Woody Harrelson (NYPost piece) and John Cusack (I am so disappointed to realize he’s this dumb).

Sampling of outlets publishing pieces on why this is BS: USA Today, Cnet, Fortune, Slate provides a nice history of the conspiracy theory. Or see Cornell’s Alliance for Science for its proximate origins: Russian trolls provided the story which was taken up by anti-vaxxers (and there you have why you should not buy into it!)

The Deep State Plot to Damage Trump Theory

There is more than one anti-establishment theory that views the entire COVID disaster as part of a plot to bring down Trump. The saddest are the anti-Dr. Fauci theories, such as one according to which he and Hillary Clinton (of course) are working together to bring down Trump via economic collapse. Dr. Fauci has held his current position as Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984–Reagan, anyone?? (OK fine, I guess you’ll say Reagan is the essence of Deep State…) But now he’s had to have more security because of threats. (Fox News interestingly adds “admirers” to the people who are threatening him. Really?!)

Many Deep State plot theories come from QAnon, a conspiracy theory group that offers spurious evidence that a cabal of global elites are trying to bring down Trump. (I guess QAnon doesn’t realize that Trump is a member of the global elite.) Fortunately, most Americans have never heard of QAnon. Unfortunately, QAnon theories do creep out of their fringe Internet lairs and into the real world, aided by Russian trolls. People who may never have heard of QAnon (and would be horrified by some of the misinformation they spread) might very well buy into some of their less insane theories.

Less insane? Maybe. But still very harmful. And see Vanity Fair’s piece about QAnon and Oprah (sex-trafficking? Seriously?) It’s got some great links at the end to more conspiracy theories.

QAnon is nearly as bad as Alex Jones…

Or would be, if they had Jones’ platform. The difference is QAnon is bottom-up (many people contribute to their web of deception), whereas Jones just tells people what to think (and, crazily, they obey, all the while believing that he’s helping them escape from being told what to think).

The Russian Plot to Secure Trump’s Re-election Theory

This is the left-wing equivalent of the Deep State theories. The gist of it: Russia has been instrumental in releasing the virus, spreading misinformation and fake news to downplay the danger (thus ensuring the USA was ill-prepared to deal with it), successfully contributing to the paralyzation of America and Europe and corresponding economic downturn.

I am not quite sure how Russia being our enemy got to be a left-wing thing and not universal, but it happened at some point during Trump’s campaign and subsequent election. Trump’s chumminess with Putin has just fed the left-wing conspiracy flames. Now, Putin has also taken a similar attitude towards the virus and made the same mistakes Trump did in underestimating it.

An alternative story: Trump was exposed and didn’t get infected. Few cases in Russia. Russia did it (chose between created it or identified it early) and has a vaccine. Trump got the vaccine in one of those closed door meetings with Putin. I like this one.

Of course, there are elements of truth here, as with all good conspiracy theories. Russia has done its best to spread misinformation that divides the American public for many years now. It’s been quick to take advantage of the novel coronavirus, creating many new conspiracy theories. And yes, Russia does want to weaken the USA in any way it can.

In the meantime, Russia is blaming the USA, and spreading its own COVID conspiracy theories.

The Man-made Coronavirus Theories

Lots of these too. For example, China created the novel coronavirus. Evidence? They were prepared, they spread it “on purpose” to the rest of the world. Of course, bioweapons are popular in Dystopian fiction. I read Michael Tolkin’s NK3 three years ago–about a virus that North Korea sets loose on the world (highly recommended quarantine reading!)

Then of course, there’s the George Soros theory (whenever it’s not Bill Gates, it’s Soros, and/or the Clintons).

This is an easily falsifiable theory. The virus is not man-made, and scientists can not only trace its origin to China, they can also trace its mutations. For example, we now know that most of the cases in New York came from Europe, rather than Asia (and it will probably turn out to be vice versa for California).

Evidence that the virus is not man(or woman) made: Nature, NIH, Science Daily (popular press), Snopes.

The Atlantic addresses this one in The Coronavirus Conspiracy Boom.

The Liberal Media Hoax Theory

The idea that the “liberal” media pushes false information in order to “bring down” Trump (or more generally, conservatives) is nothing new. It’s been pretty much the entire marketing campaign strategy of Fox News since 1996. Hey, it makes money, who cares about journalism. So of course many extreme outlets, and even some Fox News hosts (though foxnews.com’s online coronavirus coverage has been good and as reliable as most, in my opinion), have said the novel coronavirus was a liberal media hoax, far overblown. Of course, they’ve later had to backtrack as the hospitalizations and death tolls have increased.

Interestingly, Alex Jones has not denied the severity of COVID… but he has tried to set up as a snake oil salesman by peddling fake cures to followers.

It happened in China too. And the Chinese government has a much stronger grip on their media than…

I won’t touch on the general ridiculousness of the broader theory–and I am in favor of media outlets representing all sides of the political spectrum–but I will say in this particular instance it makes no sense. Presidents always stand to win when faced with national crises (see comparison of Bush, Obama, and Trump). It’s their battle to lose, so to speak, and Trump’s ratings rose, especially at the beginning of the COVID crisis.

The liberal media could not expect to benefit from this, even if they were so evil as to wish COVID on people just to bring down Trump. The only reason Trump’s ratings are not higher is that he himself shouted “fake news” at the beginning, and has repeatedly shot himself in the foot since.

The Trump is Pushing Hydroxychloroquine Because he Owns the Company Theory

According to this COVID conspiracy theory, Trump stands to benefit financially if people buy the drug. That’s why he’s pushing it, or so they say.

President Trump has certainly been making unscientific claims about the efficacy and safety of hydroxychloroquine. As of this writing, the jury is still out on the wisdom of using it to treat COVID19. (Edit: The FDA has now issued a caution against using it.) However, according to Snopes, his interest in it is only via mutual funds. He is unlikely to perceive any benefit from its sales. Similarly

The Tiger King Theory

After being convicted last April of various crimes (see this story or watch the Netflix series for details) and sentenced to 22 years in federal prison, Joe Exotic came up with a plot to get even. Suspecting that felines are vulnerable to coronaviruses and operating from within Grady County Jail in Oklahoma, Exotic paid people to travel to Wuhan as soon as he got wind of the outbreak. By the time he went to federal prison on January 22, he had successfully introduced the novel coronavirus into California (direct from Wuhan) and the East Coast (via Europe).

At the same time, Exotic arranged to infect tigers in various zoos and exotic animal refuges. To date, only one zoo’s tigers have tested positive. (The Tiger King himself has avoided the virus, though it would be poetic justice if he got sick with COVID19.) As yet, they have failed to trace the outbreak back to Exotic, and its cause remains a mystery. Exotic’s nefarious plan was much more successful in the human population. As of this writing, 16,359 people in the USA have died of COVID-19. Interestingly, Trump seems to be considering pardoning the Tiger King.

The Gavin Newsom Wants California to Rule the World Theory

Based on the irrefutable evidence that the Golden State is weathering the virus better than most (and far better than expected), this theory holds that Newsom introduced the novel coronavirus into the state as early as November, 2019. Because California has the highest percentage of Latinos, and they are much more likely to have Type O than Type A blood (O has been shown to provide some protection against COVID19 whereas A confers greater risk), Newsom believed–correctly–that herd immunity could be built gradually with less risk.

Taking advantage of Chinese contacts (it’s a well-known fact that a plurality of the student body at UC Berkeley is Asian… who are also much more likely to have O blood types), Newsom learned of the virus long before China informed the world of the threat. Rather than share the information with the Trump administration, the California governor took advantage of the information to put his state ahead of the curve. Ultimately, his goal is to push the federal government towards socialism as it struggles to deal with the economic recession he could have helped avoid.

***I just made all that up, and I am not going to bother to disprove a figment of my imagination.

Additional Conspiracy Theories, Added as They Come Across my Radar

The Covid was Manufactured by the US Military and Introduced to Wuhan by a cyclist

Just saw this one today (April 27): Spread by George Webb on Youtube (apparently Webb is a big misinformation peddler), this conspiracy theory has been taken up by the Chinese media. This piece provides an in-depth look at its effects on the targeted military couple. Apparently Webb has been spreading false rumors and causing real world harm for years (e.g., dirty bomb episode). These are the types of stories that convince me that some people are just evil. There is no excuse for what Webb and Alex Jones do: take advantage of the ignorant and gullible to make a quick buck.

More…

Good New Yorker piece on conspiracy theories: The Dangerous Coronavirus Conspiracy Theories Targeting 5G Technology, Bill Gates, and a World of Fear

Sadly, the United States seems to be so taken with and taken over by conspiracy theories that I cannot keep up. This willful ignorance or perhaps naivete of many people is threatening our economic and social well-being. The Atlantic has compiled information here: Shadowland.

Why People Believe Conspiracy Theories

No one is completely immune to conspiracy theories–which is why we must always think critically, and be especially suspicious when we agree. Some people are more susceptible, however, and there are times when people in general are more inclined to believe.

When are we all more susceptible?

Epidemics always spawn a host of conspiracy theories. H1N1 (swine flu) was blamed on everything from Obama to pork-haters to Al Qaeda (in the minds of the truly delusional conspiracy theorist, these three are probably one and the same). Later, the government was suspected of hiding information. Now, 11 years later, more demonstrably false theories about swine flu are circulating (… but Obama!!)

Epidemics spawn conspiracy theories because people are scared, uncertain, and looking for answers. In the early stages, no one knows much, and that makes people try all the harder to find explanations. Even a far-fetched conspiracy theory may be better than not knowing, especially for people who rely on structure and respect for (their) authority.

Right now, we are all probably even more susceptible, because so many of us are locked at home with little to do… but surf the internet. The internet is a perfect medium for brewing and spreading conspiracy theories. (See this Psychology Today piece.)

I’ve just started Neal Stephenson’s Fall, and to my delight, it begins with a great conspiracy, and an excellent description of how the Internet allows conspiracy theories to run rampant.

Who is more susceptible?

Belief in conspiracy theories is not a sign of stupidity. On the contrary, many people who follow conspiracy theories are very intelligent. Where they may be lacking is in an education that would have given them training in critical thinking (not that everyone with a degree has any necessary advantage here) and more importantly, the knowledge of how to verify the veracity of information. Many peddlers of conspiracy theories can sound like authorities on the subject, and they can often find “authorities” (people with degrees!) who are willing to lie for money, or simply are the outliers.

Highly educated people might unethically take advantage of others’ susceptibility to spread conspiracy theories, but most studies suggest that more education is associated with less tendency to believe them. Similarly, people on the extremes of the political spectrum (far left and far right) are more likely to buy into conspiracy theories, as are more religious people.

Of course, political moderation and/or education are no guarantee of critical thought, perhaps because a college degree can mean anything these days. A little (or limited) education combined with innate intelligence is, as Pope so famously wrote, a recipe for disaster:

A little learning is a dang’rous thing;
Drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring:
There shallow draughts intoxicate the brain,
And drinking largely sobers us again. 

Alexander Pope

What about mental illness?

First, many people believe in some conspiracy theory (50% believe in easily falsifiable ones; at least 60% simply don’t accept the Warren Report on the Kennedy assassination). Clearly, mental illness is not a pre-requisite. That said, certain conditions can encourage magical ideation and strange beliefs as part of a cluster of symptoms. Whether such clusters are called illness or eccentricity depends on the extent to which they interfere with normal functioning (and, sadly, socioeconomic status which can provide a buffer). Schizotypal personality disorder, for example (see here for another good description), falls somewhere between schizoid personality disorder and schizophrenia, and includes a tendency to espouse unusual beliefs and theories. Paranoia and paranoid ideation have also been associated with the tendency to follow conspiracy theories.

Schizotypy, which refers to the cluster of traits typical of this spectrum and includes undiagnosed people (studies are carried out with nonclinical samples), is associated with an increased tendency to buy into conspiracy theories. Research reported in Science Daily and a different study in PLOS ONE both show this association. However, the symptoms of schizotypal personality disorder decrease with age and only around 3% of the population is affected, so clearly it cannot explain most people’s willingness to swallow conspiracy theories hook, line, and sinker.

It’s probably more about individual differences in personality-related traits than mental illness.

In the studies mentioned above, schizotypy was treated as a personality trait. Other traits, such as fear, anxiety, narcissism, and low self-esteem have all been related to increased tendency to believe conspiracy theories. The same study (a meta-analysis) shows that desire for control (of other people and the environment) also relates positively to conspiracy beliefs. Personality, on the other hand, defined as five factors (openness to experience, conscientiousness, extroversion, agreeableness, and neuroticism), was not related.

Update October 1, 2020: A New York Times piece (A Theory About Conspiracy Theories) reports on a recent academic study (Looking under the Tin Foil Hat). Good review of the literature plus findings that include a positive correlation between the tendency to hold conspiracy beliefs and narcissism, disinhibition, psychoticism, depression, and anxiety, and negative associations between conspiracy beliefs and intellectual humility and conscientiousness.

That’s all, folks! If you have a good theory I have missed, please let me know in a comment 🙂